Sorry, for the delay on articles lately, but we've been having storms in my area over the last few days and internet outage has been widespread. As such, I had to postpone my final 2018 music-based article, as well as my proposed list of the Best Movies of 2018.
Look for those to happen sometime next week and beyond, now that the drama is behind us. Until then, here's an article to tide you over about my Oscar picks. Thanks for your patience and understanding. Shit happens, as it were. 馃槈
________________________________________________
Oscar season is in full swing, and the big ceremony is tomorrow, so you know what that means: Oscar predictions! I'm not going go into detail for some of the categories, so as to get this one out in a timely manner, but I will offer up some commentary on the biggies. So, without further ado, let's get this started!
Best Picture
Nominees:
Roma
Green Book
Nominees:
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Vice
Will Win: Green Book
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
The latter is an engaging, thoughtful, sometimes surprisingly funny film that has director Spike Lee in fine form- arguably one of the best film of his long, illustrious career. But Lee has always been controversial- hence his only being nominated for the first time in his career this year. He might well win elsewhere, but I'd be shocked (if pleasantly surprised) if he won here.
Instead, count on Oscar to not do the right thing and instead go with the "safer" choice. I haven't seen Green Book yet, admittedly, but it has Oscar all over it- witness Driving Mrs. Daisy winning back in 1989, which has a very similar type of plot. While not without some controversy of its own- the family of IRL subject matter Don Shirley has highly disputed the content, in regards to the overall plot and script- it's still prime Oscar bait.
The rest are even more divisive: some will likely stick with Roma winning for Best Foreign Film, where it should be a shoe-in, but it could be a dark horse here. A Star is Born was an early favorite, but it seems to have lost a lot of momentum for some reason- though it will likely win elsewhere. Ditto Bohemian Rhapsody, which has also stirred up its fair share of controversy.
Vice and The Favourite are both too divisive to win here, and Black Panther is great, but almost certainly will land in the "honor to be nominated" category. That leaves Green Book, but if there is an upset- and there could well be, given that Oscar loosened up its rules this past year and has allowed for much more diversity than in the past- it will probably be in favor of Klansman or Roma, as Oscar voters might want to show how "woke" they are.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale, Vice
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Will win: Rami Malek
Should win: Rami Malek
This one's a shoe-in for sure. If there was a greater transformation this year, I didn't see it, with respect where its due to Bale. The movie itself may be uneven, but Malek absolutely nailed it as Freddie Mercury, showing his range, and showing that he could play a character as different as night and day from his best-known role as Elliot on TV's Mr. Robot.
As for the rest, Cooper was excellent, but Star being the fourth iteration of that story might work against him. Likewise, Bale has won before, and people were split on Vice on the whole. Mortenson is a fine actor, but the backlash against the movie might work against him here, especially as he made some controversial comments during the process of promoting the film.
Dafoe should win for something eventually, but his movie here is so low-profile as to be borderline non-existent- I've literally not heard a single critic (or anyone else, for that matter) bring it up. I'm going with Malek all the way for this one.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Will Win: Glenn Close
Should Win: Glenn Close
I admittedly haven't seen The Wife as of yet, but I was downright shocked to find out Close has never won an Oscar, despite having been nominated seven times- the most to have been nominated without a win. I thought she was like a Meryl Streep and could win these things in her sleep. She has won elsewhere, and deservedly so, but not here, so count on Oscar to finally remedy that here.
If there's an upset, it will be Coleman, who has been doing solid work for years, but has never quite gotten the respect she deserves, and her work in The Favourite has been unanimously praised by critics. Also, given her endearing speech at the Globes, some might want her to win just to see what she says, lol.
As for the rest, McCarthy is firmly within the "honor to be nominated" spectrum, as is first-timer Aparicio. Though also a first-time nominee, Lady Gaga was fantastic and could be a dark horse here, but she's got plenty of time to win in the future- and probably will win elsewhere, for Best Song. But I think it's finally Close's year, and I think Oscar voters will agree.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Sam Elliott
Ali's currently killing it on HBO's True Detective (which coincidentally ends its season Oscar night), and has been doing rock-solid work for years. People might be divided on Green Book as a movie, but I haven't heard a single bad thing about his performance. Granted, he's won before- and recently at that- but he's nothing if not consistent, so count on him to win here for his efforts.
If there's a dark horse here, it's undeniably Elliott, who has never won. Lord knows he deserves to, but his role in Star is so small, it seems a bit dubious to give it to him for that film, unless, as with someone like Close, people just feel like it's his time to win. Note that a similar thing happened with Anthony Hopkins, but though his presence in Silence of the Lambs may have also been limited in terms of overall screen time, it was undeniably crucial to that movie- not so much with Elliott here, so I don't think he'll win.
As for the others, Rockwell is really good, but he's won before, and his screen time is also limited, unlike Ali's, who could have easily been nominated as Best Actor. Grant has been doing great work since time out of mind, but his film was a bit under-seen, so I'm not sure he'll win here. Driver's great, too, but he's young- there's still plenty of time for him to win on down the line. I think Ali's got it in the bag.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Amy Adams, Vice
Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Regina King
The two Favourite actresses have both won an Oscar, so count on them to cancel each other out here, though both are fantastic in that film. Tavira firmly belongs in the "honor to be nominated" category. Adams should absolutely win at some point, but not for this scattershot film.
That leaves King by default, and by all accounts, she's fantastic in Talk, so count on her winning here. It's also a chance for Oscar to put its money where its mouth is on the diversity front, though hardly the only area to do so. Still, I think the Oscar is King's to lose here.
Best Director
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuar贸n, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Will Win: Alfonso Cuar贸n
Should Win: Spike Lee
In a perfect world, Lee would already have several Oscars, but as it stands, he doesn't have a one. This could be Oscar's opportunity to change that, but smart money has Cuar贸n winning. He's a fantastic filmmaker in his own right, and Roma has him in the driver's seat for not only directing, but writing, producing, shooting and co-editing the movie, which is pretty damn impressive. It's clearly a passion project for him, and if he wins, it will be well-deserved.
That said, Lee has never even been nominated for an Oscar, so this could be Oscar's chance to rectify all that oversight over the years. I'd love to see it happen, but I'm not sure if it will here. Lee might fare better with his screenplay nod elsewhere. Here's hoping.
I love that the quirky Lanthimos (all of whose films I've seen) was nominated, but I don't think he'll win. McKay's direction was one of the best things about the film, but the film itself is kind of meh, IMHO. I'd literally never even heard of Pawlikowski or his movie before it was nominated, and I suspect few others had, either. Count on him being firmly within the "honor to be nominated" contingent.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Spike Lee, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth and Will Fetters, A Star is Born
Joel & Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Will Win: Spike Lee, et. al.
Should Win: Spike Lee, et. al.
Lee might be a bit of a long-shot for Best Director, but he's all but a shoe-in here, what with his movie falling firmly within in the "strange but true" category. It's a great story, and a great script. Ditto Holofcener and Whitty's tale, and I'm a big fan of the former in particular, but Lee's is even more incredible than the odd story of Lee Israel, who forged letters from famous writers to earn cash on the fly.
Jenkins may be the dark horse here, as his film was unanimously praised by critics, and the source material is great as well. I loved Star, but it's been done three times before, and let's face it, the music and the approach are the real spectacle there, not the script. I love the Coen Brothers, but even I haven't seen the movie they're nominated for here- and I'm not sure I'm all that inclined to, frankly, given the sound of it.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Peter Farrelly, Brian Hayes Currie and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book
Alfonso Cuar贸n, Roma
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Adam McKay, Vice
Will Win: Davis and McNamara
Should Win: Schrader
As fantastic as the cinematography and acting are, it's the words that make The Favourite stand out. Like Shakespeare by way of Heathers, the script is just wonderfully barbed and well-written, by first timer Davis, with an assist from talented Aussie McNamara. I think if it wins for anything, it will be this, and maybe for Coleman if they're really lucky.
That said, the underrepresented First Reformed also deserves a shot, especially with star Ethan Hawke, who was fantastic in the film, snubbed of even a nomination. Likewise, the talented Schrader, whose been plugging away at Hollywood for years, notably writing some of Scorsese's best films (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull), has never been nominated, so, much like Lee, this is Oscar's change to rectify that. He's even been out promoting the film on the talk show circuit, a rarity for him, so it's not like he hasn't put forth the effort.
Green Book, as I mentioned, has been the subject of some controversy for playing fast and loose with the facts, so I don't think it will win, McKay's script is clever- though perhaps not as clever as it thinks it is- but the reception to the film was mixed. Cuar贸n isn't out of the question, but I think Roma will win elsewhere, so I'm going with The Favourite, though I'd love it if Schrader won.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Will Win: Spider-Man
Should Win: ?
I haven't seen Spider-Man yet- I was all Spider-Man'd out by the time it was released, after all the reboots and the like, but I hear nothing but good things, so I will probably rectify that soon. Normally, Disney/Pixar would be a lock- they've won this category ten out of the last eleven times. But it may be for that very reason that Oscar voters decide to give some new blood a chance.
That said, I dug both of their offerings, Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet. Either one of those films winning would be fine by me, as both were a lot of fun, with lots of great moments. I also enjoyed Dogs, but it's a little too weird to win, I think. I hadn't even heard of Mirai until it was nominated, but it looks interesting. I don't think it will win, though.
From here on, we'll do some quick picks.
Best Documentary Feature
I'm going with the favorite to win, RBG, though Minding the Gap, which I taped the other night, looks really interesting and cool (it has to do with skateboarders, a la Mid90s), so if it won, that would be alright with me.
Best Foreign Language Feature
This is Roma's to lose, obviously. Heard good things about Shoplifters, though. If Roma doesn't win this, don't count on it winning Best Picture. In fact, even if it does, I'm not sure it will win both.
Best Cinematography
The Favourite was gorgeous, bringing to mind similar work in Kubrick's Barry Lyndon. But Roma looks pretty great from a visual standpoint, and it's in glorious black & white, so it's a tough call. I'm pulling for the former, but predicting the latter.
Best Costume Design
Gotta be The Favourite, right? If not, Black Panther might score an upset.
Best Film Editing
Another tough call. Odds are split on this one almost down the middle. I'm going to go with John Ottoman, for Bohemian Rhapsody, which has some great, vibrant editing. Little surprised that Star is Born didn't make the cut, as it was even better.
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
This one is Vice all the way. Bale's make-up alone is startlingly accurate.
Best Original Score
I'm shocked Desplat made the cut here- his score for Dogs was annoying AF and the worst thing about the movie. I normally like his stuff, but ugh. It's a toss up between Beale and BlacKkKlansman. I'll say Beale, by a hair.
Best Original Song
How could this NOT be "Shallow" as much as they play it on the radio? Plus, it's Oscar's opportunity to give Gaga an Oscar for something, and I don't think they'll forgo it.
Best Production Design
The Favourite should be the favorite here.
Best Sound Editing
I'm going with A Quiet Place, where sound was truly crucial to the proceedings.
Best Sound Mixing
I would normally go with the musicals here, but it might just go to First Man or Black Panther. I'll go with the latter.
Best Visual Effects
Ready Player One was super-cool, what with all the visual in-jokes, but I think Oscar will ultimately go for the biggie, Avengers: Infinity War.
Best Documentary Short
No idea- haven't seen a one. So, I'm going with the favorite here: Black Sheep.
Best Animated Short
Another one I'm clueless about. I'm going Pixar, with Bao.
Best Live-Action Short
No idea. Going with the favorite: Marguerite.
Well, that about does it! Join me next week for my own personal fave films of 2018, and thanks for reading! 馃槂
No comments:
Post a Comment