Hi all!
As some of you know, I've been a bit under the weather lately, but I've been watching a fair amount of movies, so expect some new reviews next week, along with the return of Flashback Friday. Until then, here's my list of Oscar predictions to tide you over!
Best Picture
What Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Will Win: The Shape of Water
Those of you who read my personal Best of the Year may be a bit perplexed by my choices here, but personal choices don't always equal "best." I loved Shape and would be thrilled if it won, but this is the Oscars we're talking about, and I feel like Billboards is more their speed.
Of course, you never know. After all, Shape is a quintessential ode to old Hollywood, complete with an elaborate, gorgeously-shot B&W musical number and lots of political undertones that should definitely get Oscar attention.
But it's also about a woman in love with a fish man, so that may render it a bit silly in some voters' eyes especially in such a politically-charged year. That's why I think they'll go with the more character study-oriented Billboards.
On the other hand, the movie has been a little divisive lately, with some grumbling that the Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand characters don't answer for their crimes they way they "should." Not saying I agree- just that this sort of thing is in the conversation, leading to a bit of backlash that could cost it some votes.
If that backlash isn't too late in the game to matter, then Shape might squeak through with a win, which would be fine by me, as I just love the movie. But I think that the backlash is too little, too late, and that Billboards will stick the landing. We'll see.
Lead Actor
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman
This is a tricky one for me, as I haven't seen any of the nominee's movies, save Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out. He's great, but I think he also falls into the category of "honor to be nominated." Ditto Timothée Chalamet. Both are young, and will be nominated again, most likely, and for less "controversial" films.
(In that Get Out is a horror film and horror rarely wins, and Call Me By Your Name is gay-themed, and we all know what happened with Brokeback Mountain, the last time a film like that was nominated- and this one is much more controversial than that one, due to Chalamet's character's age, in comparison with co-star Armie Hammer's.)
Denzel Washington has won before- twice, in fact- and for more acclaimed films. I haven't seen this one, but I didn't hear a lot of buzz about it, either, so...
Daniel-Day Lewis is a distinct possibility, especially with his announcement that he'll be retiring, but he's won before, too. That leaves Oldman, who, remarkably, has only been nominated once before (for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) and is long overdue.
And his role here, as Winston Churchill, is full-on Oscar bait, what with Oldman literally disappearing into the role, to the point of being unrecognizable. As such, this may be the surest thing of the night, in what may well be one of the more unpredictable Oscars ever.
Best Actress
Who Should Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Hawkins is the heart and soul of Shape, and says more with nothing than a lot of actresses do with an entire script of words, as a mute character here. She's amazing and absolutely flawless. But Shape is one weird movie, and that may work against it. As such, McDormand, who is positively on fire in Billboards (when she's not setting them), is a shoe-in.
This category is an embarrassment of riches, between the career-high of Margot Robbie in I, Tonya and yet another excellent turn from the phenomenal Saoirse Ronan (as the titular Lady Bird), who's been nominated three times to date. Like Kate Winslet before her, Ronan is destined to win, but I think it'll be for something more dramatic and serious. Ditto Robbie. Both are young, so they have plenty of time.
That just leaves Meryl Streep, who's amazing as always, but come on- she's won three already. Granted, McDormand's won once before already (for her superlative turn in the classic Fargo), but let's face it- she's amazing in this particular role, and it's way more showy than the others- in a good way. I think she's got it in the bag.
Supporting Actor
Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
This is a tricky one, as, by most accounts, Dafoe's the lead in Florida, which means his being submitted as a "supporting actor" is a full-on gambit to get him an Oscar. As such, it may backfire, but then, so might Rockwell and co-star Woody Harrelson being both nominated for the same movie. The two might divide the vote, as both are fantastic, and neither one has won an Oscar, and both deserve to at some point.
Richard Jenkins, the consummate supporting actor and old pro, deserves to win as well, and he's great in Shape, but I think he'll eventually get one for something a bit more prominent. Plummer's won already, and as a literal "substitute" actor for All the Money in the World, he should just be happy to be nominated for the troubled film.
That leaves Dafoe, who I think will squeak by with a win because of the aforementioned divided vote, but you never know- Rockwell might just slide in there, like one of his patented unexpected dance moves. We shall see.
Supporting Actress
Who Should Win: Allison Janney, I ,Tonya
Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
How do I love Janney's performance in I, Tonya? Let me count the ways. Hell, the bird should probably get a nod for Best Supporting Animal. Alas, it's precisely because of that X-Factor that I think Janney might lose, in spite of how effectively she managed to become Tonya Harding's ice-cold mother, all but disappearing into the role. Some may see it as a sort of "novelty act."
If so, that allows for the sublime Metcalf, who's been doing rock-solid work for ages on both the small and big screen, to say nothing of on Broadway, for years. She's fantastic in Lady Bird and I can't imagine anyone begrudging her for it being essentially a "teen movie." But, as those who have seen it know, it's so much more than that, which is why I think she'll win.
Octavia Spencer is also great in Shape, but she's won, and for a better role (in The Help), so I think we can safely rule her out. I haven't seen the other nominees' movies yet, so I can't really comment on them, except to say they don't have nearly the buzz of the top two contenders here. It would be neat if singer-turned-actress Mary J. Blige won, though. But I don't think she will.
Best Director
Who Should Win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Will Oscar be able to resist the allure of awarding a woman director for the first time in the year of "#MeToo"? Probably not, but if they do, it will likely go to Del Toro, who deserves it for persistence of vision and for making every frame of Shape undeniably his.
I adore Gerwig, but I think her time will come, and for something a bit more involved than Lady Bird, which is wonderful, but not exactly on the showy side, and Oscar loves to reward the spectacle. I do think she's a shoe-in for Best Screenplay, though.
Jordan Peele is another possibility, and his film is indeed more on the showy side than Gerwig's, but will Oscar reward a horror film? It's rare but it has been known to happen- witness The Silence of the Lambs. He certainly proved himself as a director, and the African-American thing would be historic, but, like Gerwig, it's also his first feature, and how often does someone win right off the bat?
I also love Paul Thomas Anderson and Christopher Nolan, and Lord knows, both are long overdue, but critical reception on their respective movies (The Phantom Thread and Dunkirk) was a bit split- some loved them, some not so much. I feel like if there's an surprise upset, it will land on Nolan's side of the fence, but overall, I think Oscar might just go for Gerwig.
Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win: Logan, Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Who Will Win: Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin
Logan was just amazing, and how cool would it be to see a "comic-book movie" get some long-overdue respect? But I don't see it happening for this one, and what critic or person in the biz doesn't love Sorkin? He's an actor's writer, and Molly was fantastically written, so he should have this one in the bag.
Call Me By Your Name and Mudbound are possible upsets, but I haven't seen either, so I can't really comment on them. I did see The Disaster Artist, and I enjoyed it, for the most part, but I don't see it winning.
Best Screenplay
Who Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who Will Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
I love every last one of these nominations- talk about a Sophie's Choice! I think if anyone wins this, it will be one of the above two, but you never know. I think Peele's clever script is just wonderful, and why the film works as well as it does. It certainly deserves to win, and has the kind of political undertones Oscar loves, but I also feel like Oscar will want to give Lady Bird something in the year of "#MeToo", and if Gerwig as director is a bridge too far, this is a happy medium.
But make no mistake: Billboards, Shape and The Big Sick are all well-deserving, too. Sick is also based on a true story, and virtually re-invents an entire sub-genre in the process (the rom-com), so don't be surprised if it squeaks in there, though Billboards seems more likely as an upset. I think it will win elsewhere, though, so my other choices seem more likely.
Best Cinematography
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Who Will Win: Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
Deakins is a legend in the industry, and has never won, despite a whopping 14 nominations. He's certainly due, but will he win for a critically divisive cult film that bombed at the box office? Seems unlikely.
Laustsen, on the other hand, did what he did on a nothing budget, and say what you will about the story-line of Shape, it certainly looks amazing, especially the little flourishes, like the title sequence and the luscious B&W dance sequence. I think Shape has it in the bag.
If there's an upset, I think it will be Dunkirk, but I don't think there will be.
Original Score
Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood, The Phantom Thread
Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
I love Desplat's work in Shape, which brings to mind a similar score for Amelie, but come on, how cool would it be to see the guitarist from freaking Radiohead win? (See also Trent Reznor, from a few years back.) Besides, it's not like he doesn't deserve it- he's been doing solid film scoring work for Paul Thomas Anderson for years.
Hans Zimmer and Carter Burwell are both great, too, and obviously, John Williams is a legend, but I say go with one of the more avant-garde ones.
I'm not going to get into all the technical categories, and I haven't seen any of the foreign films, documentaries or even any of the animated features (much less the shorts), so I don't feel qualified to talk about any of that, anyway. Join me on Monday for a recap, and we'll see how I did!
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